The Heat still have one shot on Monday despite giving away a 3-0 lead.
Extrapolation bias, often known as recency bias, is a phenomena studied in behavioral finance that results in people’s natural tendency to place more weight on recent occurrences than they should when making future decisions. It was a major contributing factor in the collapse of the property market in 2008.
People are fundamentally predisposed to think that whatever is happening now will continue into the future. Do home values increase daily? That balloon won’t pop. The Eastern Conference Finals’ first three games had been won by the Celtics. On Monday, they will undoubtedly triumph once more.
Jimmy Butler argues the opposite.
Butler told reporters after the Game 6 loss on Saturday, “When we huddle up after the game, after a tough loss like this one, everybody is smiling because we know we’re very capable of it, I’m telling you, and we are not going to let up.” “I won’t allow anyone to give up. I won’t permit our men to leave. I couldn’ care less what occurs. We intend to travel to Boston and prevail there.
Butler made a similar statement prior to Game 6, so once more, don’t let your recency bias deceive you. Remember Butler’s postseason, even when a few terrible games are still fresh in your mind. In the Eastern Conference Finals from a year ago, Butler scored six points in Game 4 on 3-of-14 shooting, followed by 13 points in Game 5 on 4-of-18 shooting as the Heat lost 3-2. It would have been simple to assume that both he and the Heat ran out of gas at that time.
Instead, Butler went for 47 in Game 6 in Boston with the outcome of the series on the line, forcing a Game 7 at home in Miami where Boston bounced back with a victory to advance to the NBA Finals. Why won’t the Heat perform similarly on Monday?
Don’t argue it’s because of what you saw in the previous three games, either. We have discussed this. Your mind is playing a trick on you. Game 7 will feature a unique brand of basketball conflict. It won’t be about the changes or schematics that we all enjoy discussing, and it definitely won’t be about what transpired in Game 6.
With five minutes remaining, this game has all the makings of being tight. Butler will act like a wild beast in those circumstance, thus you must be new to the show. You must have forgotten the 15 points he scored on Saturday in the fourth quarter, including the three icy free throws that, but for a Derrick White miracle, would have advanced the Heat to the Finals.
I agree; it’s tempting to argue that Boston currently has too much momentum and that the Heat won’t be able to bounce back on the road after losing three straight. Again, the most recent three games are still fresh in our memories. However, I want you to keep in mind that Miami also won three straight games in this series; they were simply the first three, and the pattern didn’t last.
In the NBA, it is incontestably incredibly challenging to win four straight playoff games. This explains why sweeps are uncommon. This is the reason why no team has ever won a playoff series after falling behind 3-0. Without adding these Celtics, 150 teams have attempted it, and 150 teams have failed.
It is true that the Celtics have already defied many expectations. Only three of the 150 previous 3-0 losers — the 2003 Portland Trail Blazers, the 1994 Denver Nuggets, and the 1951 New York Knicks — were able to advance to a Game 7 of the series. But none of them managed to complete it. That fourth victory in a row has always been excessive.
Does that imply that I predict a victory for the Heat? Not at all, I assure you. What I’m trying to convey is that, although I know many of you out there believe it, it would be wrong to presume that Miami’s clock has already struck midnight. Vegas shares this opinion. The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites on Monday because of this.
The Heat have been written off in this series from the beginning; even when they were up 2-0, they were favored to advance to the Finals. We were searching for any justification to resume doubting the Heat. It doesn’t take much to entirely forget that this Miami squad isn’t your ordinary eighth-seed after three consecutive losses. This team is not a fairytale one. I’m not sure what to say to you if you still believe it to be.
Will Caleb Martin continue to perform at an All-Star level? I’m not sure. Butler, however, will probably start Monday’s game with the pedal to the metal. Butler was too patient in Game 6, according to Charles Barkley, and I concur. For an NBA superstar, it’s a precarious line to walk. When you hold out for too long, patience turns into apathy, and you never genuinely go forward. Miami still took the lead with three seconds left in Game 6 after Butler got it going too late.
Little evidence exists to suggest that Butler can be stopped by Boston when he decides to dominate, particularly as a scorer. Additionally, Miami’s shooters have a knack of getting going when Butler is a dominant scorer. If it occurs, the outcome will depend on whether Boston can consistently make their own 3-pointers. Really the same plot as the rest of this series.
We’ll see, then. I would be lying if I said I knew who would win this game. But this is not the point. Nobody is aware. You may believe that you do since the Celtics have come back strongly and feel like the superior team going into Monday night, but that is just your recency bias at work. Cut out that voice. You’re going to get into a lot of problems with that.